tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post6883479803122479509..comments2024-03-18T03:31:52.739-07:00Comments on VIX and More: NDX Drops 4% and IBD Bag Indicator Is Yellow…Bill Lubyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comBlogger6125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-12545314128889358782008-06-30T08:25:00.000-07:002008-06-30T08:25:00.000-07:00Avaiator,Regarding complacency in the VIX, I do th...Avaiator,<BR/><BR/>Regarding complacency in the VIX, I do think that is bearish, per the Don Fishback post from today, et. al. -- but it is not fatal.<BR/><BR/>The markets can bottom without a VIX spike, but a VIX spike certainly reinforces that a bottom has been made. <BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/><BR/>-BillBill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-58482396216491565862008-06-29T10:57:00.000-07:002008-06-29T10:57:00.000-07:00@aviator:you blog is closed. might i please be in...@aviator:<BR/>you blog is closed. might i please be invited in to see it? thank you, david k seattletransformationhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10834788878068428887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-84685752966598929692008-06-29T10:56:00.000-07:002008-06-29T10:56:00.000-07:00aviator:does tend to be a bullish divergence, if o...aviator:<BR/>does tend to be a bullish divergence, if only for a day or two or a week, but still, as often happens at MACD wich starts to indicate some accumulate with succesively higher lows, while the indices fall lower.transformationhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10834788878068428887noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-2492247630319691572008-06-29T08:53:00.000-07:002008-06-29T08:53:00.000-07:00BillGreat stuff. What do you make of the VIX fail...Bill<BR/><BR/>Great stuff. What do you make of the VIX failing to make a new short-term high above the early-June high while the S&P continued to make a new low? Potential near-term bullish implications for equities?<BR/><BR/>ThanksAviatorhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07419169355877795377noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-86276144211041412372008-06-28T13:08:00.000-07:002008-06-28T13:08:00.000-07:00dk,I share your sentiments precisely. We're in a ...dk,<BR/><BR/>I share your sentiments precisely. We're in a bearish environment without doubt. I've been trading successfully with the QIDs for the past few weeks and the trend is anything but up.<BR/><BR/>However, late Thursday and Friday AM I decided to try a bit of long action. The drop on Thursday was signifigant and the rebound late Friday was what I was expecting. All we need is some more bulls to convert to bears and we're set for a short covering rally.<BR/><BR/>Caveat: sometimes I can be too early on these things...we'll see.<BR/><BR/>Cheers,<BR/>MarcMarchttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13935848992860543227noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-48027687312428447372008-06-28T00:57:00.000-07:002008-06-28T00:57:00.000-07:00wonderful bill.i sold my july 48 QQQQ puts late th...wonderful bill.<BR/><BR/>i sold my july 48 QQQQ puts late thur, to take an initial stab on 45 calls. i specialize (outside my prior prof work on the street on the long side) in going short, so calls are rare. when i saw the end of day dump, added in. i didnt want to see the puts have premium erosian, as often happens following a big jump in volatity.<BR/><BR/>today, i winced, late fri, to see those same puts (that i had sold the day before) down 4% when my calls were down about 5%. i felt great to have this.<BR/><BR/>i checked in latter (i am not a day trader, but position hold, with emphasis on scaling in rather than stop loss) and was delighted to see the premium on the calls held, despite slight minus on NDX.<BR/><BR/>i read your note here, and feel dubly good.<BR/><BR/>fundamentally, since the us is in a real long term secular decline, upon fiscal craze, and an incipient falling dollar, with global gridlock and a vacume in leadership, am a bear. very bad structure to our society.<BR/><BR/>but short term, i take recent 40% profits and run long for a few days or a week, lets see.<BR/><BR/>warmest, dktransformationhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10834788878068428887noreply@blogger.com