tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post6182868766321720515..comments2024-03-29T03:46:10.767-07:00Comments on VIX and More: Where Will the VIX Bottom?Bill Lubyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comBlogger11125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-64402768958864711152009-05-20T16:17:22.598-07:002009-05-20T16:17:22.598-07:00The Bonds have dropped in the last two months. It...The Bonds have dropped in the last two months. It seems money is flowing from T-Bonds to the Stocks. Maybe we need to look at the bond as an indicator as well.<br /><br />Also, as the bond interests surges, it will push the long term interest rate up. This is not want B wants. He wants the long term interest rate to push as low as possible in order to create an artificial bottom in housing. So I expect, FED will do something very soon.<br /><br />ManAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-15772443258572147082009-05-20T16:08:58.984-07:002009-05-20T16:08:58.984-07:00I have noticed the famous VIX/VXV ratio was 0.89 (...I have noticed the famous VIX/VXV ratio was 0.89 (open), 0.95(high), 0.86(low) and 0.94(close). It seems it is a sell signal, although the ratio bounded back to 0.94 at close.<br /><br />I wonder if this famous ratio also fails again this time or the close value must be used instead.<br /><br />ManAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-48905143926029433742009-05-20T11:30:08.579-07:002009-05-20T11:30:08.579-07:00If the SPX continues to go sideways and stays clos...If the SPX continues to go sideways and stays close to its 20-day moving average, the actual volatility and the VIX could work lower, perhaps reach into the high teens.<br /><br />ChesterAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-52487034998124980062009-05-20T07:41:47.022-07:002009-05-20T07:41:47.022-07:00What about renaming the site, The Vix and Poor? LO...What about renaming the site, The Vix and Poor? LOL!!Jukienoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-22569107676856963562009-05-20T07:41:05.506-07:002009-05-20T07:41:05.506-07:00Big support near 24 level, what do you think about...Big support near 24 level, what do you think about SPX:VIX analys, this could be near big resistance, and mark a medium term top on the stock market! <br /><br />Please see: VIX - top, bottom analysis!<br /> <br />on:<br /><br />http://thinktwicetechnicalanalysis.blogspot.com/NPRhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09391978858731436030noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-48444616089844004452009-05-20T07:34:01.905-07:002009-05-20T07:34:01.905-07:00The speed of the recent decline in the VIX has sur...The speed of the recent decline in the VIX has surprised me, but I still think the 25-26 level previously referenced it a good estimate of a bottom.<br /><br />Note that the VIX was unable to drop below 26.50, even as the markets continued to move higher. I suspect this is the first sign of an impending VIX floor. <br /><br />Three additional thoughts:<br />1) that floor can move<br />2) the numbers I offer up are part art and part science, neither of which comes with guarantees<br />3) I am not omniscient<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />-BillBill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-28396301278463170212009-05-20T07:28:15.164-07:002009-05-20T07:28:15.164-07:00by "last stand" i mean the 27-something value you ...by "last stand" i mean the 27-something value you gave as a floor.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-37084925013955276532009-05-20T07:14:11.938-07:002009-05-20T07:14:11.938-07:00i wont make a trading decision solely based on vix...i wont make a trading decision solely based on vix. its just one of the indicators. it went down a lot, and it just means its getting cheaper to hedge, but im not seeing surge in hedging activity. when spx makes 1k mark and newsheadlines all over about it, i would expect panic buying day with big volumes. yeah i will sell everything i have. until then im not shorting. what would be vix then? no idea. prolly cheaper? if the smart monies know that the market will plunge again, they might not even bother to hedge.stonebathttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13067880752297712041noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-41383787390524550002009-05-20T07:12:03.883-07:002009-05-20T07:12:03.883-07:00bill, it's time to hang it up. your "last stand" p...bill, it's time to hang it up. your "last stand" point was breached. more proof that being an "expert" on the vix gives you zero insight into where it or the indices are going.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-90325971081887265442009-05-20T05:34:49.118-07:002009-05-20T05:34:49.118-07:00The magnitude and frequency of intraday swings als...The magnitude and frequency of intraday swings also are a factor in the level of the Vix. The mkt may finish unch, but if it made wild multi-percent swings all day, option longs make out like bandits.Andynoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-91768575204473195932009-05-19T12:37:00.000-07:002009-05-19T12:37:00.000-07:00Right on the heels of this post, I see Steven Sear...Right on the heels of this post, I see Steven Sears at Barron's has an excellent take on the VIX: <A HREF="http://online.barrons.com/article/SB124268362023931979.html?mod=googlenews_barrons" REL="nofollow">Don't Get Euphoric About Falling VIX</A>Bill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.com