tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post5137002310287944573..comments2024-03-29T03:46:10.767-07:00Comments on VIX and More: VIX:VXV Ratio Sell/Short SignalBill Lubyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comBlogger14125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-52930463621459423252012-10-24T19:44:13.560-07:002012-10-24T19:44:13.560-07:00the bubble was in the financial not in techs. like...the bubble was in the financial not in techs. like-wise, in year 2000, it was tech that was a bubble. the nasdaq and dow/sp500 are both reverting closer back to their mean. techs will go down with the dow/sp500 soon but they just switched position from the last bubble since the 2007 top. JimmyAmanda Moserhttp://josephxmaddocksl.webnode.com/news/great-tips-for-reaching-your-ideal-weight-338359/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-1417745601724964172009-06-27T09:32:58.642-07:002009-06-27T09:32:58.642-07:00the bubble was in the financial not in techs. like...the bubble was in the financial not in techs. like-wise, in year 2000, it was tech that was a bubble. the nasdaq and dow/sp500 are both reverting closer back to their mean. techs will go down with the dow/sp500 soon but they just switched position from the last bubble since the 2007 top.<br /><br />JimmyAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-8193025468056172412009-06-26T22:42:58.664-07:002009-06-26T22:42:58.664-07:00Hey Bill,
I agree in that the $SPX, $DJI and $RUT...Hey Bill,<br /><br />I agree in that the $SPX, $DJI and $RUT are all flashing the warning bell...but got any idea why the dang Nasdaq is so strong? AAPL maybe?<br /><br />CheersAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-4203061901820838862009-06-26T07:30:02.646-07:002009-06-26T07:30:02.646-07:00Tim,
While I don't trade short/inverted calen...Tim,<br /><br />While I don't trade short/inverted calendar spreads, the current environment could be a good setup for such a trade.<br /><br />Tom,<br /><br />Thanks. The deflation story is one that intrigues me. I've gone back and forth on that a couple of times already.<br /><br />As for being wrong, if I'm going to be wrong, I guess I might as well be lucid about it!<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />-BillBill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-54013730759056913792009-06-26T07:05:33.223-07:002009-06-26T07:05:33.223-07:00Hi Bill-- well my memory is that I last left a com...Hi Bill-- well my memory is that I last left a comment on this site around the March lows, which you *pretty much* called, I do believe. At the time I said that I was going long, and it worked out well.<br />Just for the record, I've seen enough: several things I watch are showing signals (2-4 month timeframe) + on the macro side deflation ain't over + your chart this AM speaks volumes. <br />I'm about to leg into some SH. Right or wrong, thanks as always for your lucidity Bill. --TTomhttp://wagefreedom.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-35877105450208556962009-06-26T05:50:46.797-07:002009-06-26T05:50:46.797-07:00Really amazing post.....could this mean that inver...Really amazing post.....could this mean that inverted calendars are smart in this market? Long short term options and short long term options?Tim Justicehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13774139176118669209noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-25690806280201686852009-06-25T16:30:51.785-07:002009-06-25T16:30:51.785-07:00Looking at this ratio on a candlestick chart, I se...Looking at this ratio on a candlestick chart, I see that yesterday and today both form candles looking (somewhat) like a bearish engulfing pattern. It suggests to me that we might see a lower ratio in the very short term before going up. I'd love to be wrong, as I'm already short.dreadwinaardhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00309193355328788622noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-39934559394181176142009-06-25T14:16:00.244-07:002009-06-25T14:16:00.244-07:00Thanks for all the comments, everyone. They are co...Thanks for all the comments, everyone. They are coming in faster than I can compose a reply...<br /><br />An excellent question about SPX highs, Anon. In the past, a close below 0.9 has tended to either follow a recent top in the SPX and/or precede a lower bottom in the VIX:VXV ratio, so while I would be hard pressed to come up with some hard data to confirm your hypothesis, I like where you are going with it and would expect that it has at least some merit.<br /><br />Stefan, I agree that this will be an interesting test of the model and if it holds up, maybe I should just delete the blog and go raise some money... :)<br /><br />Douglas, VXX:VXZ works for these purposes as well (though you have an even smaller historical data set -- unless the ETF sponsors care to help you out.) Alternatively, you could look at front month VIX futures vs. futures 3-4 months out. Here you have a wealth of historical data available.<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />-BillBill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-62331432806251890692009-06-25T14:10:11.782-07:002009-06-25T14:10:11.782-07:00Bill, I've kept my own chart on this ever sinc...Bill, I've kept my own chart on this ever since you shared the idea. My review suggests that the sell signals, such as today, tend to be a few days early wrt SPY price top.<br /><br />On that basis, I'm expecting an end of quarter markup, then the drop.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-12419806569700367612009-06-25T14:09:03.329-07:002009-06-25T14:09:03.329-07:00Stefan
Are you suggesting that if this works...th...Stefan<br /><br />Are you suggesting that if this works...then it will stop working?<br /><br />DouglasDouglasnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-29855502100704283872009-06-25T14:08:50.458-07:002009-06-25T14:08:50.458-07:00Just one thought though, take look at ISEE, is fai...Just one thought though, take look at ISEE, is fairly bearish though. We rarely close below 100 and look at all indicies/etf is only at 30s which means super bearish. So could retail option player be right this time?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-49858419468126019782009-06-25T14:07:47.643-07:002009-06-25T14:07:47.643-07:00Bill
Would you recommend a way of being able to m...Bill<br /><br />Would you recommend a way of being able to model an approximation for VIX v VXV that would date back before the start of the VXV?<br /><br />e.g. a comparison of shorter term historical volatility with longer term historical volatility?<br /><br />DouglasDouglasnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-19273691700119497142009-06-25T14:07:16.082-07:002009-06-25T14:07:16.082-07:00If this model works out this time, it would be rea...If this model works out this time, it would be really close to a really good market-timing tool. Such a thing should not exist...Stefanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05943250209286641112noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-70822988449413233642009-06-25T14:02:32.032-07:002009-06-25T14:02:32.032-07:00Would you consider the fact that we are not at a n...Would you consider the fact that we are not at a new price high as this ratio is reaching a sell point as a possible indicator of the size of the bear's "upper hand"? Or is there no evidence that the two (price high/ratio low) need to coincide? Eyeballing your chart, it looks like they tend to, or at least be pretty closely tied.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com