tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post441128772182345567..comments2024-03-28T06:07:36.391-07:00Comments on VIX and More: SPX at Post-Lehman Fib Retracement Target of 1035-1037Bill Lubyhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-80766099015312085422009-08-26T03:39:31.614-07:002009-08-26T03:39:31.614-07:00The S&P 500 December futures rallied from Augu...The S&P 500 December futures rallied from August 19th intraday low of 974 to yesterdays close of 1021.6 without a down day. The S&P futures closed above the top of their Bollinger bands for two consecutive days. It should be interesting to see how much longer the S&P futures can continue to trade above the top of their Bollinger bands and if they will fail to rally above the post-Lehman Fibanacci retracement target area of 1035-1037.<br /><br />The contrarian reliability of a few peoples recommendations can be very accurate since they recommended put options very close to last Wednesdays lows. Some professional traders may have technical indicators that come close to the contrarian relability of these people.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-66560267923795745042009-08-26T03:39:31.029-07:002009-08-26T03:39:31.029-07:00The S&P 500 December futures rallied from Augu...The S&P 500 December futures rallied from August 19th intraday low of 974 to yesterdays close of 1021.6 without a down day. The S&P futures closed above the top of their Bollinger bands for two consecutive days. It should be interesting to see how much longer the S&P futures can continue to trade above the top of their Bollinger bands and if they will fail to rally above the post-Lehman Fibanacci retracement target area of 1035-1037.<br /><br />The contrarian reliability of a few peoples recommendations can be very accurate since they recommended put options very close to last Wednesdays lows. Some professional traders may have technical indicators that come close to the contrarian relability of these people.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-20147071372695358002009-08-24T16:21:17.593-07:002009-08-24T16:21:17.593-07:00Hey Damian,
Not surprisingly, I have had this dis...Hey Damian,<br /><br />Not surprisingly, I have had this discussion several times and your point is certainly a valid one. As a result, I presented two alternative Fibonacci interpretations in <a href="http://vixandmore.blogspot.com/2009/06/dueling-fibonaccis-for-spx.html" rel="nofollow">Dueling Fibonaccis for the SPX</a>.<br /><br />In short, my contention is that the the macroeconomic picture changed so much post-Lehman that it is valid to think of a bifurcated TA landscape as well.<br /><br />I have been ruminating about and writing about a "post-Lehman" world since at least early December and it has become so hard-wired into my thinking that I wanted the charts to reflect that cutoff point.<br /><br />I do think that some Fibonacci analysis decisions are highly discretionary. Ultimately I decide how valid they are based upon how much the support and resistance lines seem to match market behavior. So far, I think the use of the end of September high has held up well and if today turns out to be a top with some staying power, I will stick to the post-Lehman approach. If not, I will have to roll back to an earlier top: Oct '07, May '08 or Aug '08.<br /><br />Thanks for the comments.<br /><br />Cheers,<br /><br />-BillBill Lubyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01241003017364820134noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-897456774486153841.post-16558435352782236792009-08-24T13:44:39.339-07:002009-08-24T13:44:39.339-07:00My only issue with this is that the selection of t...My only issue with this is that the selection of the top seems a bit arbitrary - I've used the market high as my start for the fib and that called for a retracement at around 1016.Damianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16016686632386396090noreply@blogger.com